Cheltenham Festival Timefigure Preview: Day one

Two things might be unfamiliar about Cheltenham’s opening day – the running order, which seems to me less appealing than in recent years, and the re-siting of the final hurdle much further back from the winning post – but the object of this column as ever remains the same, to try and dig out some winners on the clock across the four days.

Mindful that Cheltenham has a very efficient drainage system nowadays, arguably too efficient, I’ll proceed on the assumption that the ground may well be faster than given officially.  

The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle kicks off the first day as it traditionally does. All I’ve read for the last few weeks is how deep a race it is this year but the clock says something different – Old Park Star is 17lb clear on ratings from Mighty Park whose timefigure from his only start at Fairyhouse was very hard to pin down accurately and could have been higher, by some way, than the 139 he was awarded.

Mydaddypaddy earned some sectional upgrades earlier in the season that would put him thereabouts but this looks a shoot out to me between the top two in the market and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Mighty Park turned out to be the real deal.

Kopek Des Bordes has long been talked about as the real deal too and he makes a belated second appearance of the season in the Arkle, for which he is now favourite after some reportedly encouraging homework.

He was imperious in the Supreme last year, recording a 159 timefigure, significantly higher than the 146 Lulamba posted in the Triumph, but the latter has bloomed over fences this season, posting a 162 in the Game Spirit at Newbury last time. A race to watch and savour. 

A 24-runner juvenile handicap hurdle makes little appeal as a betting medium given that half the field will have had this as their target for some time and therefore the clock isn’t necessarily the best guide to their chances – Winston Junior and Mustand Du Breil are top for what’s it’s worth – and there’s not much to go on either in the National Hunt Challenge Cup with most of the field unexposed or untried at what is a marathon trip for novices. The Sun Racing Plate is another race I’ve put a line through with those best in on time having plenty to prove currently but fortunately the two remaining races, the Trustmarque Ultima and the Unibet Champion Hurdle, look appealing.

The Ultima was won easily last year by Myretown and he bids to follow up off a 15lb higher mark, but this looks a much better running with four horses running off marks of 152 or higher and two of them look to me to be potential Grade 1 horses. First of those is top weight Iroko who finished second to Gold Cup hopeful The Jukebox Man on his reappearance and then made short work of subsequent Irish Gold Cup fourth Firefox at Ascot.

Back at three miles for the first time this season and a previous Festival winner (2023 Martin Pipe), he is likely to make the frame, but his owner JP McManus has an even better contender in my opinion in the shape of Jagwar. He won the Plate here last year off 139 but his latest run when second here behind Donnacha in January suggests he’s improved massively. Both he and the runner-up did extraordinarily well to pull ten lengths clear of the rest after the final fence at the end of a well-run race, earning themselves a very big sectional upgrade on top of an already fast time, and a 3lb rise for that effort looks lenient. The step up to three miles for the first time and the booking of Mark Walsh look just the ticket.

Lossiemouth’s addition has made the Champion Hurdle a more interesting race than it looked a week ago and, in view of her Cheltenham record, it’s not surprising to see her at the top of the market. I’m still to be convinced that The New Lion is a two miler and the horse who looks a standout at the prices is surely not current champion Golden Ace but the horse who finished fourth behind her last season, Brighterdaysahead.

There still seems to be a widespread belief that she’s a mudlark but nothing could be further from the truth having posted a monster 166 timefigure at Leopardstown’s 2024 Christmas meeting (8lb higher than anything Lossiemouth has ever achieved) on ground Timeform called good, and she clearly wasn’t right at both the spring Festivals she contested last season. She has a recent win over Lossiemouth to her name in the Irish Champion Hurdle, a race she won in 157, and looks overpriced at 11/2.

Recommended bets:

1pt win Jagwar at 4/1 in the 15:20 Cheltenham

1pt win win Brighterdaysahead at 11/2 in the 16:00 at Cheltenham