Timing expert Graeme North previews day four of the Cheltenham Festival and highlights his best bet.
After an unaccustomed start to the meeting, Cheltenham’s final-day card has a reassuringly familiar look to it but with twenty-six runners in both the handicap hurdles, the biggest field in the Triumph Hurdle since 2012 and a record twenty-two going to post in the Albert Bartlett finding winners isn’t going to be easy.
J P McManus landed the first juvenile hurdle of the week with Saratoga and he looks to have another leading candidate for the Triumph with Proactif who put up one of the better performances amongst the field on the clock when winning at Fairyhouse in January on his first start since coming over from France.
That puts him just 8lb behind the race-leading Highland Crystal who had Saratoga back in second when winning at Naas last month, but Gordon Elliott's poor start to the meeting isn’t confidence inducing and with several others in contention on time too – notably Maestro Conti, One Horse Town and Minella Study – I can pass this race over.
Just 4lb splits the top six on time (Tripoli Flyer, Sticktotheplan, Ooh Betty, Bowmore, Wellington Beach and Sixandahalf) in the County Hurdle. I mentioned earlier in the week that seven horses have landed the County having finished in the first five in a Grade 1 contest at Cheltenham the previous year and while Tripoli Flyer doesn’t strictly fill that criteria he did start favourite for the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last season after missing Cheltenham before finishing third to Final Demand at the Punchestown Festival.
A good second on his latest start and first in a handicap showed he’s in good heart and his big price is almost certainly on account of his rider’s inexperience. Hello Neighbour, sixth in the Triumph last year when beaten just under six lengths is another who nearly fits the criteria and hasn’t much to find on the clock; Sinnatra is another I like.
The Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase has attracted all the usual suspects including last year’s winner Dinoblue. First or second at each of the last three Festivals, she not only has the best weight-adjusted timerating in the field but the second- and third-best as well clear of Only By Night, Spindleberry and Panic Attack who are closely matched. A newcomer to the scene despite being the oldest in the line-up, Panic Attack might be the one to run Dinoblue closest.
Twenty-two runners many of whom are tackling the trip for the first time make the Albert Bartlett appear to make the Albert Bartlett a real head scratcher but it might not have the depth it appears to have. The evidence from the Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday suggested there isn’t much between the leading Irish and British novices at middle distances but in this instance the first three on time are all trained in Ireland with Thedeviluno holding a clear 5lb advantage on time over The Passing Wide and Doctor Steinberg.
Paul Nolan is one of the canniest operators in Ireland and brought Thedeviluno over to win the River Don at Doncaster in January where he went through the race very powerfully. Nolan nearly won the race in 2020 with Latest Exhibition and he can gain consolation here.
The Gold Cup looks an intriguing race with a plausible case able to be made for plenty of the runners and unsurprisingly the betting is very open. Gaelic Warrior is top on time, by 4lb from Spillane’s Tower and 6lb from Jango Baie, but throw sectional upgrades into the mix and there’s nothing between Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie. Gaelic Warrior has looked as good as ever this season and posted a 170 timefigure when landing the John Durkan from Fact To File back in November, while his Arkle win here in 2024 put to bed any lingering doubts he can’t go left handed.
Spillane’s Tower also gets his figure from the John Durkan, in his case the 2024 running when beaten half a length by Fact To File, and his latest run when winning the Cotswold Chase from the re-opposing L’Homme Presse and Grey Dawning was easily his best run this season. 2025 Arkle winner Jango Baie needs to prove his stamina but shapes as though he’ll stay and arguably has more upside at the trip than The Jukebox Man hasn’t yet run a timefigure faster than 151, well below Gold Cup winning level.
Inothewayurthinkin won this race last year in a modest 149 but this looks a much stronger renewal, and in any case, he has looked a shadow of himself so far this year, though recent reports suggest he has been working well.
I’ll give the Hunter Chase a swerve given the paucity of timing information on offer and am not much more confident about the Martin Pipe, a race that has gone to Pipe’s former assistant Gordon Elliott four times out of the last nine. He has five entries this time but the trio at the top on time are Air Of Entitlemnt, Fiercely Proud and Act Of Authority. The last-named would be giving Olly Murphy a first Cheltenham winner if successful but this looks too tricky to solve.
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