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York Preview: I-Dante-ty Parade

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Are there any real Derby horses out there? It’s a question that has got louder with every trial, but any answer assumes what a ‘Derby horse’ looks like at this stage. Jamie Lynch looks at the evidence from recent editions of the Derby as he outlines the key points with the one big remaining trial at York this week.

It’s surprising that 43% of people in Britain don’t wash their own cars, the surprising part being that 57% still do. It’s more pronounced in certain areas, according to Paul Yates, Managing Director of AA Cars, who compiled the survey: ‘Whether it’s life getting in the way, or just laziness, many Londoners have no inclination to wash their vehicles.’ And then he went and spoilt it all by saying something stupid like ‘cleaning your car is a prerequisite if you want to sell it.’ He added that Aidan O’Brien is a fair trainer for the Derby.   

I’m not a Londoner, but I am lazy, and the lure of those Eastern European lads at the pop-up car wash in the grounds of the supermarket is too much to resist. Even though I’m a veteran, just four stickers away from the 75 needed for a complimentary wash, I still, every time, have a moment of panic at the key point of key handover at the thought of somebody else driving away in a six-year-old Skoda, as no forms are filled in nor numbers swapped with the easy-going attendant.

But there would never be a case of mistaken identity because our individual identity isn’t easily mistaken. That’s the truth of it, and it’s an uncomfortable truth, especially as the unflattering tags will outweigh the distinguished features. It’s easier to find fault, but that can lead to mistaken identity when it comes to Derby horses out of trials, more acute this year.

Churchill apart, no Derby entrant has put a big number on the board, and none of the mainline trials have produced any wow moments, making for a shapeless market – 5/1 the field – but the Derby is almost unique as a race defined on the day, by the day, and the preliminary past is but a path retrospectively plotted for clues and clarity.

The Derby is the pinnacle in every sense, and the final ascent is the steep, transformative part, something saved for it, by the shrewdest strategist, for their highest climbers, working backwards from Epsom. The Derby makes horses, not the other way around.

The point is that this year’s Epsom field is, by and large, a familiar mix and a classic mix, featuring several ‘Derby horses’ judged on what ‘Derby horses’ traditionally looks like – for form and formation - at this stage, three weeks out, with one big trial still to come. Three-year-olds bringing big ratings with them to Epsom are the exception rather than the rule.

The 2009 Derby had as many as five horses in the line-up with pre-race ratings of 120+: Sea The Stars (128p), Crowded House (122), Gan Amhras (121), Fame And Glory (120p) and Rip Van Winkle (120p). In the seven renewals since then, comprising 90 contenders, as few as eleven brought the same sort of hefty figures with them. Three of them won (Camelot, Australia and Golden Horn), proving the worth of proven worth, but the Derby still can be, and still often is, the domain of the long jumpers, who leap up on the day. Of the other four winners since 2009, Pour Moi was the most experienced with four runs, one more than Harzand, while Workforce and Ruler of The World had raced just twice before Epsom.         

It depends. That’s the short, unhelpful answer to the question of what a Derby horse looks like, but more often than not they’re identifiable by the sum of their hidden parts as much as the sums of their ratings chart. Horses low on mileage and high on breeding who’ve come through trials in whichever way are often the radar runners for Epsom, and you can take your pick of them this year, though two in particular stand out: Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman.

At Chester, Cliffs of Moher passed his test with colours that were speeding towards the end of the runway if not actually flying, and from one’s dress rehearsal to another’s as Cracksman seeks to put on a show in the Dante. Ten unpolished rivals of all shapes and sizes make his trial the best trial in prospect, and if Cracksman can emerge on top then he’ll be in pole position for Epsom. But make no mistake, he, and a few others, are ‘Derby horses’ already, more than you might hear.

It was the Dante, likewise on his third start, likewise for Gosden, that the game really changed for Golden Horn, who scaled such heights at York that only a single rope was needed for the short climb to the Epsom peak. But before the Dante, and even for a while after, the plan was the Derby in France, over the shorter trip.

Here we are again, this time with a filly, en route to Epsom but likelier to divert to France, so goes the talk. In theory, the Musidora is a cakewalk for Shutter Speed, but why it’s important is that there’s every chance she’ll ‘do a Golden Horn’, making Epsom impossible to resist if she’s impressive, hard to think she won’t be against this field with the raw power she looks to have. That Shutter Speed is an Oaks filly isn’t in doubt; the question is which one.

 

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LEOPARDSTOWN 3:30

Sunday 22 October
6. BYE BYE BABY (IRE) 112p
Seamie Heffernan silk Seamie Heffernan
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
2. KENYA (IRE) 111p
Donnacha O'Brien silk Donnacha O'Brien horse in focus
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
1. GUESSTHEBILL (IRE) 108
Pat Smullen silk Pat Smullen
John Patrick Murtagh, Ireland
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2nd Alistair Rawlinson silk 9. COCKNEY BOY 25/126
3rd Finley Marsh silk ½ 1. FILAMENT OF GOLD (USA) 15/28.5
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