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Weekend Preview: High Hope on Saturday

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Triple Crown talk in Britain is still in the mid-range, but it’s quickly upon us for the American version, the second leg coming up at Pimlico on Saturday night. Jamie Lynch outlines the questions for Justify in the Preakness, as well as highlighting a potential Oaks contender for Epsom who’s still under the radar.

If you don’t like an answer, ask a different question. Much of racing is creative problem solving, of trying to solve the right problem with a creative approach, often by challenging assumptions, but we can’t have it both ways, by abruptly changing a question because of an answer.

Take the two horses embarking on the Triple Crown trail on either side of the Atlantic. The pedantic pendulum has swung right across for Saxon Warrior, going from being too slow to win a Guineas to too fast to win a Derby, while the role reversal for Justify is hard to fathom, fathoming that he mightn’t have been hard enough for a Kentucky Derby going in, but had too hard a race coming out.

Horses weren’t supposed to win a Kentucky Derby without a two-year-old foundation, and horses aren’t supposed to win a Kentucky Derby when pushing a pace that almost breaks 22 seconds for the first quarter-mile, as Justify did. Here we are, a fortnight on from Churchill Downs, with conditioning queries from a different perspective, his aggression assured after that, the question now of the impact of a fierce three months, wondering whether the flame can be so intense again so soon or if it may be extinguished by exhaustion, at least in part.

It’s perhaps more an intrigue than an issue, given the mind of the master who trains him, Bob Baffert having masterminded the Derby-Preakness double with every one of the four horses who’ve been in that position, though there are no wider reference points for Justify, who’s breaking new ground after breaking age-old records in terms of profiling a Triple Crown contender.

EPSOM LANDSCAPE

It’s a black-and-white matter in the Preakness at Pimlico as it is in the Derby at Epsom, revolving around one horse, no sleep deprivation for Saxon Warrior from what he’s seen in the trials, though Roaring Lion signposted in the Dante that he may be more the rival for him that he was at Doncaster as opposed to Newmarket, but the corners and contours of Epsom may be tricky for a horse without much of a steering lock.

It’s a different picture in the Oaks, however, where Lah Ti Dar is clear favourite via a three-part mixture: by pedigree, by potential and by default.

The way is open in the Oaks for something to still come from left-ish field, even at this late stage, which brings us to the tucked-away 4.50 at Newbury on Saturday. Three years ago, a filly trained by Sir Michael Stoute and owned by Sir Evelyn De Rothschild reappeared in this Newbury listed race and went off as short as 7/2 at Epsom. Crystal Zvezda spoiled her chance in the Oaks by pulling hard and wasted her talent thereafter, but lightning needn’t strike twice, with another Crystal for the same team.

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The Oaks trials in Britain have felt like GCSEs rather than full-on graduations, but Give And Take’s hard-fought win in the Musidora- with Highgarden back in fourth – was significant for this latest uncut crystal, Crystal Hope, who had smashed them both up in a novice event at Sandown last month.

SUPPLEMENTARY EVIDENCE

It’s difficult to win by as far as Crystal Hope did – by three lengths – when they went as steady as they did that day, not least when there was at least one Group-class filly amongst the opposition, and her surge up the hill in the last 100 yards was striking and stirring in equal measure, qualifying for a big upgrade on sectionals analysis.

Crystal Hope isn’t entered in the Oaks, but the owner’s recurring spot on the Sunday Times Rich List means that funds can probably be found if there was cause to supplement her into the Epsom field, and Newbury could turn a cause into a contract.

On Saturday, it’s up to Hope to justify the hype, and up to Justify to add hope to the hype that he’s the new equine superstar.

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NOTTINGHAM 3:25

Tuesday 22 May
5. LINE HOUSE 105
P. J. McDonald silk P. J. McDonald
K. R. Burke
4. FABULOUS RED 104+
Paddy Mathers silk Paddy Mathers
Ed Dunlop hot trainer
7. ARABIAN JAZZ (IRE) 104
Hayley Turner silk Hayley Turner
Michael Bell hot trainer
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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

8:45 WINDSOR

1st Callum Shepherd silk 2. DANGEROUS ENDS 7/18
2nd John Egan silk nk 3. ESSENAITCH (IRE) 2/13jf
6 ran. NRs: 1 
FULL RESULT

8:30 LEICESTER

1st Fran Berry silk 5. LIGHT OF JOY (USA) 5/16
2nd Liam Keniry silk 4. KNOW YOUR LIMIT (IRE) 9/25.5
3rd Edward Greatrex silk ½ 8. SHAMROKH (IRE) 5/16
J: Fran Berry  
8 ran. NRs: 1 
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8:15 WINDSOR

1st Pat Cosgrave silk 2. AGROTERA (IRE) 85/403.12f
2nd Luke Morris silk 6. FOUR WHITE SOCKS 33/134
3rd James Doyle silk 12. SOLAR GOLD (IRE) 5/23.5
J: Pat Cosgrave  
T: Ed Walker  
12 ran. NRs: 4  5 
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8:00 LEICESTER

1st Adam Kirby silk 10. SILCA MISTRESS 12/113
2nd Gabriele Malune silk ns 1. RENNY'S LADY (IRE) 33/134
3rd Fran Berry silk hd 5. NARODOWA 25/126
4th Kevin Lundie silk 6. RAILPORT DOLLY 14/115
J: Adam Kirby  
T: Clive Cox  
All 17 ran.
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7:45 WINDSOR

1st Tom Queally silk 6. THE TIN MAN 7/42.75f
2nd James Doyle silk ¾ 2. D'BAI (IRE) 9/25.5
J: Tom Queally  
All 7 ran.
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7:30 LEICESTER

1st Edward Greatrex silk 5. ARABIAN COAST (IRE) 5/23.5f
2nd Robert Havlin silk 4 15. DOLCISSIMO (IRE) 11/43.75
3rd Jim Crowley silk ¾ 9. ERAAD (IRE) 10/111
14 ran. NRs: 11  4 
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7:15 WINDSOR

1st Ryan Moore silk 2. ALWAYSANDFOREVER (IRE) 1/12f
2nd Pat Cosgrave silk 9 3. DI ALTA (IRE) 2/13
J: Ryan Moore  
T: Luca Cumani  
All 3 ran.
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7:00 LEICESTER

1st Joe Fanning silk 3. MAKING MIRACLES 4/91.44f
2nd Fran Berry silk 2. MT AUGUSTUS 6/17
J: Joe Fanning  
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6:45 WINDSOR

1st Ryan Moore silk 4. MAIN EDITION (IRE) 2/13jf
2nd Shane Kelly silk 7. SATISFYING (IRE) 2/13jf
3rd Harry Bentley silk sh 3. LAXMI (IRE) 11/112
J: Ryan Moore  
All 11 ran.
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