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What is a Warning Horse?


Most Honourable was 15/8 favourite at Catterick, having won there four weeks previously. Timeform’s analysis suggested that his performance in winning might not have been all it seemed.

On New Year’s Day, Most Honourable was 15/8 favourite for a novice hurdle at Catterick, having won a juvenile event there four weeks previously. Timeform’s analysis, however, had suggested that his performance in winning might not have been all it seemed:

[…helped no end by the favourite's unseat and also found the relative emphasis on stamina more suitable than the runner-up…circumstances unlikely to be so favourable next time.]

Most Honourable?

Because his improvement was dubious, and the form flimsy, Most Honourable was marked as a ‘Warning Horse’, the warning being that he may be overestimated and therefore represent poor value on his next start. That came on New Year’s Day, when the ‘Warning Horse’ flag duly appeared next to Most Honourable’s name, and he performed well below market expectation, fourth and beaten almost 50 lengths in a field of six.

The famous Timeform squiggle warns of a horse’s character or consistency, while the new Warning Horse flag acts as an alarm bell more regards its most recent form. It’s not only flattering circumstances - as was the case with Most Honourable – that determines Warning Horses, and factors such as the weakness of a race, the shortcomings of the form or the profile of the horse all come under consideration for the ‘opposable next time’ file.

Whatever the reason behind it, each performance deemed worthy of a Warning Horse tag by Timeform’s expert team of race-readers is done so with the express intention of, at the minimum, making you think twice about trusting the horse to repeat the trick.

Essentially, it’s the opposite of Timeform’s established ‘Horse In Focus’ signifier. Both do the same highlighting job, but where a Horse In Focus is a positive indicator suggesting it could pay to bet on the horse in question next time, a Warning Horse is something to bet against.

Follow The Flags

Flags and ratings are exclusively available in Timeform Race Cards and Race Passes.


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Monday 19 April
Connor Beasley silk Connor Beasley
David Barron
Cam Hardie silk Cam Hardie
Antony Brittain
Ben Robinson silk Ben Robinson
Paul Midgley
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17:20 AYR

1st Brian Hughes silk 10. VINA ARDANZA (IRE) 15/28.5
2nd A. P. Heskin silk ½ 8. MASACCIO (IRE) 5/16
3rd Sean Bowen silk 2. DRUMBEAR 9/110
J: Brian Hughes  
All 10 ran.


1st R. P. Whelan silk 6. IVA BATT (IRE) 16/117
2nd Shane Foley silk 1 11. ROSES BLUE (IRE) 4/15
3rd C. T. Keane silk ½ 5. GINSBURG (IRE) 3/14
J: R. P. Whelan  
14 ran. NRs: 15 


1st Rossa Ryan silk 15. FLYIN' SOLO 6/17
2nd James Doyle silk ¾ 6. AADDEEY (IRE) 9/43.25f
3rd Jason Watson silk ½ 8. AMIR KABIR 22/123
4th Kieran Shoemark silk ½ 1. FRONTISPIECE 25/126
J: Rossa Ryan  
16 ran. NRs: 3 


1st Mr H. C. Swan silk 6. MIND YOUR MONEY 15/82.87
2nd Mr J. Dunne silk 14. MALINA GIRL (IRE) 11/112
3rd Mr P. W. Mullins silk 5. MEMORABLE DAISE (IRE) 11/82.37f
J: Mr H. C. Swan (7)  
14 ran. NRs: 1  16  17 

16:45 AYR

1st Nathan Brennan silk 3. FLOATING ROCK (GER) 4/15
2nd G. B. Noonan silk nk 5. GLENTRUAN (IRE) 5/16
3rd William Marshall silk 28 10. SWORD OF FATE (IRE) 16/117
T: Mark Walford  
All 11 ran.


1st Tom Kiely Marshall silk 5. FIT FOR FUNCTION 13/27.5
2nd C. D. Hayes silk ¾ 8. ADAMS BARBOUR (IRE) 5/16
3rd W. M. Lordan silk 12. AMAZING ONE 18/119
J: Tom Kiely Marshall (10)  
14 ran. NRs: 16  17  2 


1st Frankie Dettori silk 4. GLEN SAVAGE (IRE) 11/26.5
2nd David Egan silk sh 8. TITLE (IRE) 1/12f
3rd Jamie Spencer silk 6 3. FINDONO (FR) 80/181
10 ran. NRs: 6 


1st D. J. O'Keeffe silk 9. JACK HOLIDAY (IRE) 8/19
2nd Miss M. O'Sullivan silk 10. CARNET DE STAGE (IRE) 18/119
3rd J. S. McGarvey silk 1. BOLBEC (FR) 11/26.5
13 ran. NRs: 14 

16:10 AYR

1st Danny McMenamin silk 7. BASS ROCK (FR) 17/29.5
2nd Craig Nichol silk 6. LEOSTAR 14/115
All 7 ran.
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