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Timefigures measure the performance of horses not on
their form one against another but in terms of time, in
seconds (per five furlongs) faster or slower than a certain
fixed standard. Their calculation takes account of track differences,
race distances, the ages of the horses
concerned, weight-for-age, weights carried, the state of
the track surface and the strength and direction of the
prevailing wind. Calculation and print-out are by computer.
For convenience, timefigures are usually
transcribed into their equivalent ‘timeratings’ in pounds.
These timeratings are directly comparable with
Timeform Ratings — that is to say, they are tailored to the same scale. It must
be appreciated that a Timeform Rating is a considered
assessment of the merit of a horse on form, whereas a
timefigure (or its equivalent timerating) represents the
calculated time value of a single performance, which can
often be well below what the horse is capable of
recording.
Time & Time Value
As the name implies, a timefigure is a
representation in figures of the time value of a
performance. The actual time recorded by a horse over a
given distance conveys, of itself, practically nothing. It has
to be considered in relation to the conformation of the
course over which it was recorded and the weather and
track surface conditions prevailing at the time. On a sound
surface a modest selling plater can easily run the five
furlongs at Epsom in 57 seconds, but the very best sprinters have never succeeded in running the Ascot five furlongs as fast as that, even with the wind behind them. Similarly, horses capable of running five furlongs on a flat
track in 60 seconds on firm going, wouldn’t get within 5
seconds of that on heavy ground or if there was a galeforce
wind blowing against them. These are elementary
matters appreciated by everyone.
Of importance too are the ages of the horses concerned, how far they are from
full maturity, and also the weights carried. These things
may seem self-evident --- for instance that weight will slow a horse down and increase the time it takes to get from one point to another --- but it is surprising how often they are misunderstood. It is also surprising how often people ask immediately after a race, ‘Was that a fast time?’
No worthwhile off-the-cuff answer is possible.
To assess the real time value of a performance involves
quantifying these factors, some of them seemingly imponderable ones, and
compensating for their effects. The result has then to be
expressed mathematically in terms of time on some
convenient and meaningful scale.
Standard Times
First, the matter of the racetrack itself.
Most American tracks are one-mile circuits, flat, oval and
laid out to the same pattern. In Britain they all differ in size
and shape and many of them have pronounced gradients.
Times recorded on one course are not comparable with
those recorded on another. The problem is solved by the
use of ‘standard’ times with which the actual times may be
compared. The calculation of these ‘standards’ for each
individual distance on each racetrack is itself a
monumental job, and their accuracy is critical. To use
record times, which, if not simply timing errors, are
invariably established in abnormal conditions, would be
idiotic. Neither can acceptable standards be obtained
simply by averaging several years times over each
distance on each track. The merits and ages of the horses
recording them have to be taken into account, and the
weights carried. Nor must it be forgotten that while many sprint races are truly run throughout this is by no means the case with long distance
races.
The time data held at Timeform House covers racing since 1933 and is comprehensive in every respect, including, since 1947, the Timeform Ratings of the horses concerned. Evaluation of the standards just for
Newmarket involve statistical analysis of more than four
thousand race times. To evaluate standards for all
racecourses, and update them annually is a tedious
technical job—or at least it was before it was handed over
to the computer.
Race Distances
The differing distances of races present
another little problem, apart from that dealt with by the
standards. For a horse to record 58 seconds for five
furlongs against a standard time of 60 seconds is
obviously a much more meritorious performance than
would be the recording of 3 minutes 28 seconds for two
miles against a standard of 3 minutes 30 seconds. The
margin below standard is 2 seconds in each case, but in
the former this is three per cent of the standard time,
whereas in the latter it represents less than one per cent.
We deal with this by expressing all time differences (actual
time minus standard time) on a per 60-second basis.
Age & Weight
In evaluating timefigures for a day’s racing,
allowance has to be made with each horse for its age and
for the weight carried. This involves the use of a table
which shows the week-by-week time allowances
appropriate to the degree of immaturity of two-, three-,
and four-year-olds over all distances from five furlongs
upwards. This ‘Time-For-Age’ table is a transcription of the
Timeform Weight-For-Age table used by Timeform’s
handicappers.
The ‘Going’
Race times are, of course, greatly affected by
the state of the going. Really heavy ground can add as
much as ten seconds to the time horses are capable of
recording over five furlongs (though racing is usually
abandoned when the conditions are as bad as that). The
problem is not to be solved by the use of estimated per-furlong
going allowances. Walking-stick or heel-digging
guesswork is far too much of a hit-or-miss business to be
of much use, though the occasional use of penetrometers may prove to be a step in the right direction. However, given an accurate
set of standard times and six or seven races on a course
on one day, of which at least four are contested by horses
of established merit, there is usually ample time data for a
mathematical solution to be obtained. We deal with it in
that way. Of course rain during racing complicates
matters, but in the light of many years' experience that too
can generally be compensated for, though not always.
Wind Strength & Direction
Race times are also very much affected by the strength and direction of the wind prevailing during racing. A wind behind in the straight will
assist the runners throughout in all races run on the
straight course, but will be adverse to the runners for part
of the way in races run on the round track. The times of
straight races will be speeded up, but the precise effect
upon the times of races run on the round track will depend
upon their distances and starting points. Considering the
unusual layout of some of the courses in Britain, and
remembering that the wind may blow at any strength from
any point of the compass, it might be thought that the
problem is an intractable one. Nevertheless it can normally
be handled quite satisfactorily by vector analysis, provided
the direction of the wind is known, conditions do not vary
during racing and sufficient data is available. A 10-knot
wind makes a great deal of difference to race times, so it is
important always to have reliable information as to wind
strength and direction, direction particularly. Timeform
sees that accurate information is obtained.
The Pace in The Race
It follows from this that although a good timefigure definitely establishes a horse as a good horse, a poor timefigure does not imply that the horse
responsible for it is necessarily a bad one. If a horse
records a timefigure of -1.60 (timerating 140) you know at
once that it is in the Shergar, Dancing Brave or Dubai Millennium class. But
a good horse may register a modest timefigure for all sorts
of reasons; it may not be fit; it may be running over an
unsuitable distance or on unsuitable going; or it may have
won very easily from weak opposition. Furthermore, and it
is vital to understand this, the timefigures recorded in a
race depend largely upon what sort of pace there is in the
early stages of the race. If the horses only canter for much
of the way, as happens frequently in long-distance races,
they won’t return fast timefigures no matter how good they
may be. Even in sprint races a non-competitive pace in the
first two or three furlongs will result in the winner’s
timefigure being significantly slower than the best the
horse is capable of. A fifth of a second lost per furlong in
the first three furlongs of a five-furlong race may be imperceptible to an onlooker or a jockey, but it adds up to 0.60
seconds, or approaching a stone in terms of
weight. Really fast timefigures can only be recorded when
a race is truly run. In sprint races the horse must be
practically at full stretch throughout: in long-distance races
there must be no hanging about.
This prerequisite of a really strong pace throughout does
not obtain in more than a fair proportion of races.
Consequently it is not to be expected that a horse will
record the best timefigure it is capable of more than a few
times in the course of its career. So although one fast
timefigure is sufficient to mark a horse as a good one, it is
only after a horse has run a considerable number of times
without recording a fast timefigure that we are justified in
concluding that we have its measure. So a timefigure
doesn’t necessarily tell you how good a horse is: what it
actually tells you is how bad it isn’t.
Time and Form
There are some essential differences between form evidence and time evidence.
Form evidence accumulates gradually over the course of many races, with early assessments bound to be tentative to a degree and more than usually subject to revision (for a fuller explanation of handicapping procedures, readers are directed to "How Timeform handicaps horses"). With ‘time’ the matter is different. Here you are not assessing one horse in terms
of others, but on its performances in terms of time. Of
course, as has been mentioned, a time performance is
frequently unrepresentative of a horse’s full merit, but
sometimes it is highly significant. One single very fast
timefigure is immediate and convincing evidence of an
exceptional horse: fast timefigures often disclose good or
outstanding horses long before they can be recognised as
such on form evidence.
This is particularly valuable where two-year-olds and
lightly-raced horses above that age are concerned, since
time evidence frequently enables one to identify the really
good individuals before conventional handicapping techniques do. For example, if a two-year-old wins a race and records a timefigure of, say, 0.20 fast (timerating 105), it is established immediately as worth a rating of 105 on the
Timeform scale, even though it and the horses it beat may
all be newcomers of whom relatively little otherwise can be inferred.
Immaturity & Improvement
One further point should be understood. The fact that timefigures are calculated at weight-for-age has important consequences. Performances
of equal merit are represented by the same timefigures,
irrespective of the ages of the horse or the dates
when the performances were recorded. A timerating of
120 by a four-year-old and one of 120 by a three-year-old
represent performances of equal merit, though a four-year-old
would, of course, be capable of conceding weight to the younger horse if they met.
Similarly, a timerating of 100 by a two-year-old in April and
100 by a two-year-old in October again represent performances
of equal merit. But it should be appreciated that a
two-year-old which recorded 100 in April will only be
capable of reproducing the same figure in October if it has
made normal improvement in the interim. To assess a
horse’s present merit on the basis of a timefigure recorded
several months ago involves the assumption that the horse
has developed normally. This is not always the case.
Sharp, early-maturing youngters, seriously trained and fit
in the early weeks of the season, sometimes do not make
regulation progress afterwards. When examining the
timefigures published in Timeform Perspective, the fully comprehensive Timeform form book, it is worth bearing in mind that the more recent the timefigure the
more useful it is; a fast timefigure recorded early in the
season, which is significantly higher than the latest
Timeform Rating for the horse, should be
treated more cautiously as it could be that the horse has,
in racing parlance, gone backwards.
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